Imagining what might come
Expert judgement, creativity, scanning and emerging risks.
A half day on imagining what might come: how experts decide, the Delphi Method, creative thinking tools, environmental scanning, the global risk landscape and a capstone on Dieselgate, Silicon Valley Bank and FTX.
- Level
- Explore
- Learning time
- 4 hours
- Where
- Complexity, decisions and innovation
- Price
- £129
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Read the full terms
Certificate of Completion, or Certificate of Completion and Assessment with a short assessment
Overview and Outcomes.
Who It's For
Leadership teams, strategy, risk and policy leads in public bodies and voluntary organisations
Overview
Looking ahead is a team effort, and what a team sees depends on how well it gathers judgement, ideas and evidence. Completing the Immerse Seeing further, together, this half day begins with Gary Klein's recognition primed decision model and the Delphi Method for group forecasting. It explores creative thinking tools, from de Bono's Six Thinking Hats and SCAMPER to the New, Useful, Feasible test, then environmental scanning through PESTLE's six lenses, the limits of SWOT and Blockbuster in hindsight. It closes with the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report and a capstone on Volkswagen's Dieselgate, Silicon Valley Bank and FTX.
Aims
Put simply, the aim is to help teams scan wide, think together and act early: forecasting as a group without the loudest voice winning, running creative sessions that end in decisions and holding both short and long horizons clearly in view at once.
In summary, you will be able to:
- Use the Delphi Method to forecast as a group, drawing on expert judgement without letting the loudest voice win.
- Lead a creative session with Six Thinking Hats or SCAMPER that ends in a decision tested as new, useful and feasible.
- Assess emerging risks by scanning with PESTLE and the Global Risks Report, learning from Dieselgate, Silicon Valley Bank and FTX.
What you'll develop
Across this Explore, you will develop the ability to:
- Explain Klein's recognition primed decision model and why expert recognition under pressure is not guesswork.
- Explain how anonymity, controlled feedback and iteration each remove a specific distortion in group judgement.
- Distinguish divergent from convergent thinking, and creative from critical thinking, and explain why judgement should be held back until the right moment.
- Explain why continuous scanning gives better strategic value than an annual snapshot taken before a strategy day.
- Describe the leading risks on the two year and ten year horizons and explain why their rankings differ.
- Analyse a real risk failure by identifying for yourself which frameworks apply and why.
- Distinguish the three variations of the model and identify which one applies to a decision you face.
- Identify when a question suits Delphi and when analysis or fast recognition would fit better.
Built from 6 modules.
4 hours of learning.
- 01Naturalistic Decision Making: How Experts Decide Under PressureSolving Complex Problems and Decision Making38 min
- 02The Delphi Method and Group ForecastingSolving Complex Problems and Decision Making38 min
- 03Creative Thinking Tools and TechniquesCreativity and Innovation56 min
- 04Scanning the EnvironmentStrategic Management39 min
- 05The Global Risk Landscape and the Future of RiskStrategic Risk38 min
- 06Applied Case Studies: The CapstoneStrategic Risk38 min