Measures that matter
Risk statistics, performance targets and data ethics.
Around four hours on measures that matter: thinking in probabilities, the upside of uncertainty, dashboards and targets, public data in Wales and the UK, data ethics and four real cases.
- Level
- Focus
- Learning time
- 4 hours
- Where
- Complexity, decisions and innovation
- Price
- £69
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Read the full terms
Certificate of Completion, or Certificate of Completion and Assessment with a short assessment
Overview and Outcomes.
Who It's For
Board members, audit and risk committee members and senior leaders who rely on risk registers and dashboards
Overview
The quality of the numbers boards read sets the quality of their oversight. Sharing its material with From data to decisions, this course starts with thinking in probabilities, naming three biases from Kahneman and Tversky and using Feynman's analysis of the Challenger disaster. It then explores the upside of uncertainty with a two-sided risk and opportunity matrix and Pfizer and BioNTech's decision to manufacture a vaccine at risk. Dashboards follow, with Mark Friedman's Results-Based Accountability and Audit Wales's review of outcome information, then public data in Wales and the UK. It closes with data ethics and algorithmic fairness, and the Horizon, Mid Staffordshire, Challenger and Covid R number cases.
Aims
It sets out to help boards and leaders challenge probability estimates, weigh opportunity with the same rigour as threat, build dashboards for decisions rather than display, and test whether their data culture lets numbers say uncomfortable things and treats people fairly.
In summary, you will be able to:
- Apply a two sided risk matrix that assesses opportunity with the same rigour as threat, recognising that inaction is also a bet.
- Design or review a dashboard backward from the decisions it must inform, using Friedman's three questions.
- Explain how the same data was read differently in the Challenger, Horizon, Mid Staffordshire and Covid-19 cases, and why some readings prevailed.
What you'll develop
Through this Focus course, you will build the ability to:
- Identify the availability heuristic, the law of small numbers and authority anchoring in live risk discussions.
- Apply a two sided risk matrix that assesses opportunity with the same rigour as threat.
- Design or review a dashboard backward from the decisions it must inform, balancing lag and lead indicators and Friedman's three questions.
- Identify the main producers of public data in Wales and the UK, and use labels such as accredited official statistics to judge how far to trust a figure.
- Describe how organisational culture shapes what data is allowed to say, and identify the features of a healthy data culture.
- Explain how the same data was read differently in the Challenger, Horizon, Mid Staffordshire and Covid-19 cases, and why some readings prevailed.
- Apply reference class forecasting, the pre-mortem, structured dissent and written ranges, and recognise when each has been introduced in a hollow way.
- Explain why inaction is also a bet and why a good result is not proof of a good decision.
Built from 3 parts.
4 hours of learning.
- 01Odds, upside and downsideProbability and the risk-opportunity matrixBitesize · Strategic Risk2 modules
- 02Targets and public dataMeasures, dashboards and public data in Wales and the UKBitesize · Understanding Data and Data Analysis2 modules
- 03Fair dataData ethics and algorithmic fairness, with case studiesBitesize · Understanding Data and Data Analysis2 modules