Reading the monthly numbers
Budget monitoring, variance and reading data honestly.
- Level
- Bitesize
- Learning time
- 1 hour 15 minutes
- Where
- Managing well
- Price
- £39
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Certificate of Completion
Overview and Outcomes.
Overview
A monthly report only helps if you read it honestly. Built for budget holders in public service, this pairing begins with budget monitoring: why forecast outturn matters more than year to date, the five elements of a report, and splitting variances into price, volume and timing. It examines the RAG rating trap and savings delivery confidence, with Birmingham City Council's Oracle programme as the case. It then turns to reading data honestly, covering what averages hide, Shewhart and Deming on common and special cause variation, five chart traps and Gerd Gigerenzer's natural frequencies, ending with a short check before acting on evidence.
What you'll develop
In this Bitesize, you will develop the ability to:
- Use the forecast outturn, profiled budget and commentary to read a monitoring report and identify where the board can still act.
- Distinguish common cause from special cause variation, and explain why reacting to every movement as a signal, which Deming called tampering, makes a stable process worse.
- Analyse a variance into price, volume and timing, and decide which adverse or favourable variances deserve board time.
- Identify which of causation, reverse causation, confounding and chance best explains two things moving together, and recognise the four ways a sample can mislead.
- Assess how far RAG ratings, savings trackers and the underlying systems can be relied on, drawing on the Birmingham Oracle case.
- Use plain questions to expose what averages, charts and relative risk figures leave out before you act on them.
The Modules.
1 hour 15 minutes of learning.
- 14Budget Monitoring and VarianceThis module develops the skills to read budget monitoring reports with confidence. It explains why forecast outturn matters more than year to date, the five elements of a report, and how to split variances into price, volume and timing, one-off or recurring. It examines the RAG rating trap and savings delivery confidence, and uses Birmingham City Council's Oracle programme to show why reliable information matters.40 min
- 04Reading Data HonestlyMost misreading of data is not deliberate; it comes from ordinary habits such as trusting an average or reacting to the latest month. This module looks at what averages hide, Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming on common and special cause variation, four reasons things move together, four ways a sample misleads, five chart traps and Gerd Gigerenzer's natural frequencies, ending with a short check before acting on evidence.38 min