Deciding under uncertainty
Expert judgement, risk culture and design thinking.
Three and a half hours on deciding under uncertainty: how experts decide under pressure, the Delphi Method, risk management and risk culture, risk and strategy, and design thinking.
- Level
- Focus
- Learning time
- 3 hours 30 minutes
- Where
- Complexity, decisions and innovation
- Price
- £69
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Read the full terms
Certificate of Completion, or Certificate of Completion and Assessment with a short assessment
Overview and Outcomes.
Who It's For
Senior leaders, risk and audit leads, and board members across the public and voluntary sectors
Overview
Under real pressure nobody runs a six step model, and many organisations have a risk policy that nobody lives by. This Focus is one strand of the Immerse When there is no right answer and opens with naturalistic decision making: Gary Klein's fireground research, the recognition primed decision model and Captain Sullenberger's 208-second decision on the Hudson. It then turns to the Delphi Method and group forecasting, developed at the RAND Corporation. Risk follows, with ISO 31000, the three lines of defence model, the Post Office Horizon scandal and the WorldCom case. The course ends with design thinking, comparing IDEO with the Design Council's Double Diamond.
Aims
Its central aim is to help leaders build good judgement deliberately: knowing when expert intuition can be trusted, gathering group judgement fairly, building a risk culture that people actually live by and using design thinking to approach new problems with real discipline.
In summary, you will be able to:
- Assess when expert intuition can be trusted, using Klein's recognition primed decision model and the Hudson landing.
- Use the Delphi Method to gather group judgement so that the loudest voice in the room does not win.
- Lead a risk culture people live by, applying ISO 31000 and the three lines of defence and learning from Post Office Horizon and WorldCom.
What you'll develop
Through this Focus course, you will build the ability to:
- Explain Klein's recognition primed decision model and why expert recognition under pressure is not guesswork.
- Explain how anonymity, controlled feedback and iteration each remove a specific distortion in group judgement.
- Explain the eight principles of ISO 31000 and test your own organisation against them.
- Distinguish preventable, strategy and external risk using Kaplan and Mikes's framework and match each to the right management response.
- Explain what makes design thinking human centred, empathy driven and non-linear, and compare the Double Diamond, d.school, IDEO and IBM models.
- Distinguish the three variations of the model and identify which one applies to a decision you face.
- Identify when a question suits Delphi and when analysis or fast recognition would fit better.
- Describe the roles of the three lines of defence and the board, and identify the three markers of a healthy risk culture.
Built from 3 parts.
3 hours 30 minutes of learning.
- 01Calm heads, clear callsNaturalistic decision making and Delphi methodBitesize · Solving Complex Problems and Decision Making2 modules
- 02Risk as part of the planRisk culture and risk in strategyBitesize · Strategic Risk2 modules
- 03Starting with peopleDesign thinking principles and processBitesize · Creativity and Innovation1 module