Calm heads, clear calls
Naturalistic decision making and Delphi method.
- Level
- Bitesize
- Learning time
- 1 hour 15 minutes
- Where
- Solving Complex Problems and Decision Making
- Price
- £39
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Read the full terms
Certificate of Completion
Overview and Outcomes.
Overview
Under real time pressure, nobody runs the six step model. This module draws on Gary Klein's fireground research and the recognition primed decision model to show how experts decide well under pressure: recognising a pattern, simulating one option once, then committing. Captain Sullenberger's 208 second decision on the Hudson illustrates the pattern, and the module is honest about when recognition lets you down and how to build expertise through after action review. Put experts in a room and the loudest or most senior voice usually wins. This module explains how the Delphi Method, developed at the RAND Corporation and still used in clinical guideline work, removes that distortion through anonymous rounds, controlled feedback and iteration. It covers the facilitator's responsibilities, when Delphi fits and when it does not, four ways it fails, and why a well documented disagreement is a legitimate answer.
What you'll develop
In this Bitesize, you will develop the ability to:
- Explain Klein's recognition primed decision model and why expert recognition under pressure is not guesswork.
- Distinguish the three variations of the model and identify which one applies to a decision you face.
- Assess when to rely on recognition rather than structured comparison, including the checks to run before trusting it.
- Explain how anonymity, controlled feedback and iteration each remove a specific distortion in group judgement.
- Identify when a question suits Delphi and when analysis or fast recognition would fit better.
The Modules.
1 hour 15 minutes of learning.
- 17Naturalistic Decision Making: How Experts Decide Under PressureUnder real time pressure, nobody runs the six step model. This module draws on Gary Klein's fireground research and the recognition primed decision model to show how experts decide well under pressure: recognising a pattern, simulating one option once, then committing. Captain Sullenberger's 208 second decision on the Hudson illustrates the pattern, and the module is honest about when recognition lets you down and how to build expertise through after action review.38 min
- 18The Delphi Method and Group ForecastingPut experts in a room and the loudest or most senior voice usually wins. This module explains how the Delphi Method, developed at the RAND Corporation and still used in clinical guideline work, removes that distortion through anonymous rounds, controlled feedback and iteration. It covers the facilitator's responsibilities, when Delphi fits and when it does not, four ways it fails, and why a well documented disagreement is a legitimate answer.38 min
Keep going.
Part of the Solving Complex Problems and Decision Making topic, also sold whole as Clear calls in complex times.
Go deeper, and pay only the difference
- You are hereBitesize, 1 hour 15 minutes, £39
- Next stepFocus, Under pressure, with integrity, 3 hours, £69. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £30.
- Explore, Tools for hard choices, 7 hours, £129. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £90.
- The whole topicImmerse, Clear calls in complex times, 13 hours 30 minutes, £249. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £210.
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Prices per person. Read the full terms
Also part of: When there is no right answer, Seeing further, together, The worst day
Other Bitesize in the Solving Complex Problems and Decision Making topic
- Solving is not decidingProblem solving and decision making basics1 hour 15 minutes£39
- The minds behind our choicesBounded rationality and prospect theory1 hour 15 minutes£39
- The value of a dissenting voiceGroupthink and problem structuring methods1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Fast thinking, slow thinkingKepner Tregoe, OODA loop and decision rights1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Weighing the optionsCost benefit analysis and data for decisions1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Different minds, different routesDesign thinking and Kirton KAI problem solving1 hour 15 minutes£39
