How decisions really get made
Decision theory, bias, groupthink, structure and evidence.
A half day on how decisions really get made: bounded rationality, prospect theory, groupthink, structuring messy problems and testing the evidence behind each option.
- Level
- Explore
- Learning time
- 6 hours 30 minutes
- Where
- Solving Complex Problems and Decision Making
- Price
- £129
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Read the full terms
Certificate of Completion, or Certificate of Completion and Assessment with a short assessment
Overview and Outcomes.
Who It's For
Managers and leaders who make or shape significant decisions
Overview
How decisions really get made is a half day exploration of decision theory, bias, group dynamics, structure and evidence. It begins by separating problem solving from decision making and setting the classical rational model as a benchmark, then explores Simon's bounded rationality and Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory, with Kodak and Concorde as cases. It turns to groups through Janis on groupthink, to messy problems through soft systems and other structuring methods, and to Kepner Tregoe and the OODA loop. Decision rights, cost benefit analysis and Deming's standard for data complete a grounded view of how choices are made.
Aims
The aim is to develop leaders who understand the forces shaping their decisions and can respond to them deliberately, keeping diagnosis and decision distinct, designing dissent into groups, structuring messy problems and testing the evidence and value behind each option before committing.
In summary, you will be able to:
- Explain how bounded rationality, prospect theory and groupthink cause real decisions to depart from the classical rational model.
- Apply problem structuring methods, Kepner Tregoe, the OODA loop and cost benefit analysis to a live organisational problem.
- Design who is involved in and who owns a decision, and test the quality of the data on which it rests.
What you'll develop
Across this Explore, you will develop the ability to:
- Distinguish problem solving as diagnostic and generative work from decision making as evaluative and committal work.
- Explain Simon's bounded rationality and distinguish satisficing from optimising by their stopping rules.
- Describe groupthink and identify its four symptoms while a decision is still open.
- Identify the signs that a situation needs problem structuring before any option is chosen.
- Apply the Vroom Yetton Jago questions to choose a level of involvement suited to a specific decision.
- Apply Deming's four tests of accurate, valid, precise and reliable to a figure you use in your own work.
Built from 5 parts.
6 hours 30 minutes of learning.
- 01Solving is not decidingProblem solving and decision making basicsBitesize2 modules
- 02The minds behind our choicesBounded rationality and prospect theoryBitesize2 modules
- 03The value of a dissenting voiceGroupthink and problem structuring methodsBitesize2 modules
- 04Fast thinking, slow thinkingKepner Tregoe, OODA loop and decision rightsBitesize2 modules
- 05Weighing the optionsCost benefit analysis and data for decisionsBitesize2 modules
Keep going.
Part of the Solving Complex Problems and Decision Making topic, also sold whole as Clear calls in complex times.
Go deeper, and pay only the difference
- You are hereExplore, 6 hours 30 minutes, £129
- The whole topicImmerse, Clear calls in complex times, 13 hours 30 minutes, £249. Already own the Explore? You pay £120.
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Prices per person. Read the full terms