Clear calls in complex times
Solving Complex Problems and Decision Making.
A full day on solving complex problems and making clear, defensible calls: from bias and group dynamics to structured methods, evidence, pressure and ethics.
- Level
- Immerse
- Learning time
- 13 hours 30 minutes
- Where
- Solving Complex Problems and Decision Making
- Price
- £249
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Certificate of Completion, or Certificate of Completion and Assessment with a short assessment
Overview and Outcomes.
Who It's For
Public service leaders responsible for complex, high-consequence decisions
Overview
Clear calls in complex times is a full day immersion in solving complex problems and making decisions in public service. It moves from foundations, the classical model, bounded rationality and prospect theory, to the group: groupthink, decision rights and collaborative decision making. Structured methods follow, from soft systems and Kepner Tregoe to the OODA loop, root cause analysis and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis, alongside cost benefit analysis and the quality of data. The day then explores deciding under pressure, the Delphi Method, decision fatigue and ethical lenses, with capstones reading the Boeing 737 MAX, Birmingham's Oracle programme, Robodebt and the Columbia disaster.
Aims
This programme aims to develop leaders who make clear, defensible calls in complex conditions, diagnosing honestly before deciding, choosing methods suited to the problem and the time available, involving the right people and owning the trade offs, so that their organisations notice warnings in time and act on them.
In summary, you will be able to:
- Explain how bounded rationality, prospect theory, groupthink and decision fatigue shape real decisions, and diagnose their influence in your organisation.
- Apply structured methods, from root cause analysis and Kepner Tregoe to multi criteria analysis and Delphi, to a complex problem you face.
- Lead a decision that clarifies decision rights, involves people genuinely and names ethical trade offs openly, drawing on lessons from recent failures.
What you'll develop
By the end of this Immerse, you will be able to:
- Distinguish problem solving as diagnostic and generative work from decision making as evaluative and committal work.
- Describe groupthink and identify its four symptoms while a decision is still open.
- Describe the steps of a cost benefit analysis and how social cost benefit analysis adapts them for public decisions.
- Apply the five whys to a recurring problem, continuing until the answer would genuinely prevent recurrence.
- Explain Klein's recognition primed decision model and why expert recognition under pressure is not guesswork.
- Analyse a decision failure by asking when somebody knew, what the warning met, and who would have had to lose.
Built from 11 parts.
13 hours 30 minutes of learning.
- 01Solving is not decidingProblem solving and decision making basicsBitesize2 modules
- 02The minds behind our choicesBounded rationality and prospect theoryBitesize2 modules
- 03The value of a dissenting voiceGroupthink and problem structuring methodsBitesize2 modules
- 04Fast thinking, slow thinkingKepner Tregoe, OODA loop and decision rightsBitesize2 modules
- 05Weighing the optionsCost benefit analysis and data for decisionsBitesize2 modules
- 06Different minds, different routesDesign thinking and Kirton KAI problem solvingBitesize2 modules
- 07Getting to the root of itRoot cause analysis: five whys and fishboneBitesize2 modules
- 08What matters mostMulti criteria decision analysis case studiesBitesize2 modules
- 09Calm heads, clear callsNaturalistic decision making and Delphi methodBitesize2 modules
- 10Fewer choices, better choicesDecision fatigue and ethical decision makingBitesize2 modules
- 11Hard calls, honestly madeDecision making case studiesBitesize1 module
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- You are hereImmerse, 13 hours 30 minutes, £249
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