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Consequences and uncertainty
Avanti Academy / Complexity, decisions and innovation / Understanding Data and Data Analysis / Bitesize
Bitesize

Consequences and uncertainty

Unintended consequences and sensemaking with data.

Level
Bitesize
Learning time
1 hour 15 minutes
Where
Understanding Data and Data Analysis
Price
£39

When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Read the full terms

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About this course

Overview and Outcomes.

Overview

Every measure changes the behaviour it set out to see. This module draws on Robert Merton's causes of unintended consequences, Goodhart's and Campbell's laws, and Gwyn Bevan and Christopher Hood's three kinds of gaming, then examines the four-hour A&E target in England and a Welsh home care example from Cartrefi Cymru. It closes with the fixes that fail archetype and a process for designing measures for learning rather than control. Data describes the past, yet leaders must decide about futures that cannot simply be forecast. This module sets sensemaking beside the conventional gather, analyse, decide model, drawing on Karl Weick's seven properties of sensemaking and Dave Snowden's Cynefin framework to show what data can do in each domain. It then uses Jonathan Rosenhead's trumpet of uncertainty and robustness analysis to show why keeping good options open has value.

What you'll develop

In this Bitesize, you will develop the ability to:

  1. Explain why measures change behaviour, using Merton's causes of unintended consequences and Goodhart's and Campbell's laws.
  2. Identify ratchet effects, threshold effects and output distortion in a target, and recognise the fixes that fail pattern.
  3. Design a small basket of measures for learning that starts with purpose, pairs numbers with stories and adapts when measures distort behaviour.
  4. Distinguish prediction problems from sensemaking problems, and explain how sensemaking differs from the gather, analyse, decide model.
  5. Use the Cynefin domains to judge what data can do in a situation, treating data as feedback rather than proof where things are complex.
  6. Apply Rosenhead's trumpet of uncertainty and robustness analysis to favour options that keep good future choices open.
What it covers

The Modules.

1 hour 15 minutes of learning.

  1. 08Determining Outcomes and Unintended ConsequencesEvery measure changes the behaviour it set out to see. This module draws on Robert Merton's causes of unintended consequences, Goodhart's and Campbell's laws, and Gwyn Bevan and Christopher Hood's three kinds of gaming, then examines the four-hour A&E target in England and a Welsh home care example from Cartrefi Cymru. It closes with the fixes that fail archetype and a process for designing measures for learning rather than control.39 min
  2. 09Sensemaking with Data under UncertaintyData describes the past, yet leaders must decide about futures that cannot simply be forecast. This module sets sensemaking beside the conventional gather, analyse, decide model, drawing on Karl Weick's seven properties of sensemaking and Dave Snowden's Cynefin framework to show what data can do in each domain. It then uses Jonathan Rosenhead's trumpet of uncertainty and robustness analysis to show why keeping good options open has value.39 min
Where it fits

Keep going.

Part of the Understanding Data and Data Analysis topic, also sold whole as Beyond the dashboard.

How credit works

Go deeper, and pay only the difference

  1. You are hereBitesize, 1 hour 15 minutes, £39
  2. Next stepFocus, The meaning we make, 4 hours, £69. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £30.
  3. Explore, Data and judgement, 6 hours, £129. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £90.
  4. The whole topicImmerse, Beyond the dashboard, 11 hours, £249. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £210.

When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Prices per person. Read the full terms

Also part of: Leading with data and digital, From data to decisions

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