Choices under uncertainty
Strategic choice models and decisions under risk.
- Level
- Bitesize
- Learning time
- 1 hour 15 minutes
- Where
- Strategic Thinking
- Price
- £39
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Read the full terms
Certificate of Completion
Overview and Outcomes.
Overview
Real public service decisions are messy, interconnected and made under political pressure. This module introduces tools built for that mess: John Friend and Allen Hickling's Strategic Choice Approach and its four modes, Jonathan Rosenhead's robustness analysis, and Colin Eden and Fran Ackermann's cognitive mapping. It closes with multi-attribute decisions and the doability and desirability indices, helping you choose what to commit to now and what to leave deliberately open. Much poor decision-making comes from using a tool built for certainty or manageable risk on a decision made under deep uncertainty. This module separates certainty, risk, uncertainty and ambiguity, introduces Herbert Simon's bounded rationality and satisficing, a six-step decision process and cost-benefit analysis, and shows why risk tools break down when the odds are unknown. The practical thread is matching the tool to the condition.
What you'll develop
In this Bitesize, you will develop the ability to:
- Describe the four modes of the Strategic Choice Approach and identify which mode a discussion is actually in.
- Apply robustness analysis and cognitive mapping to choose and work with a group when the future cannot be forecast with confidence.
- Assess options separately on doability and desirability and explain what each of the four resulting positions implies.
- Distinguish certainty, risk, uncertainty and ambiguity, and use four questions to place a live decision on that spectrum.
- Apply bounded rationality, the six-step decision process and cost-benefit analysis appropriately, including naming what has not been valued.
The Modules.
1 hour 15 minutes of learning.
- 05Strategic Models II: Structuring Strategic ChoiceReal public service decisions are messy, interconnected and made under political pressure. This module introduces tools built for that mess: John Friend and Allen Hickling's Strategic Choice Approach and its four modes, Jonathan Rosenhead's robustness analysis, and Colin Eden and Fran Ackermann's cognitive mapping. It closes with multi-attribute decisions and the doability and desirability indices, helping you choose what to commit to now and what to leave deliberately open.38 min
- 06Decisions Under Certainty, Risk and UncertaintyMuch poor decision-making comes from using a tool built for certainty or manageable risk on a decision made under deep uncertainty. This module separates certainty, risk, uncertainty and ambiguity, introduces Herbert Simon's bounded rationality and satisficing, a six-step decision process and cost-benefit analysis, and shows why risk tools break down when the odds are unknown. The practical thread is matching the tool to the condition.38 min
Keep going.
Part of the Strategic Thinking topic, also sold whole as The strategic mind.
Go deeper, and pay only the difference
- You are hereBitesize, 1 hour 15 minutes, £39
- Next stepFocus, Deciding with judgement, 2 hours 30 minutes, £69. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £30.
- Explore, Thinking strategically, 4 hours, £129. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £90.
- The whole topicImmerse, The strategic mind, 7 hours 30 minutes, £249. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £210.
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Prices per person. Read the full terms
Also part of: Setting the course, Seeing further, together, Leading at the strategic level
Other Bitesize in the Strategic Thinking topic
- Seeing the bigger pictureStrategic thinking and environmental scanning1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Knowing where you standStrategic analysis: context, position and choice1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Judgement in a changing worldCognitive bias, judgement and AI in strategy1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Shaping the organisationOrganisation design and target operating models1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Making it stickStrategy implementation and delivery1 hour 15 minutes£39
