Judgement in a changing world
Cognitive bias, judgement and AI in strategy.
- Level
- Bitesize
- Learning time
- 1 hour 15 minutes
- Where
- Strategic Thinking
- Price
- £39
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Read the full terms
Certificate of Completion
Overview and Outcomes.
Overview
You can choose the right tool and gather good evidence and still reach a poor choice, because people apply the tool. This module draws on Daniel Kahneman's System 1 and System 2, examines anchoring, sunk cost, confirmation bias and groupthink at board level, and uses Dr Jonathan Huish's Cranfield research, adapting the Kakabadse Top Team Framework, to show how judgement forms in top teams. It ends with three practical debiasing habits. Artificial intelligence has not solved strategy, and it is not a fad. Drawing on Harvard Business Review research, this module argues that strategy's old constraint was bandwidth, sets out three practical shifts AI brings, expanded options, real-time modelling and depoliticised stress-testing, and explains what holds, what gets riskier and what gets easier for established tools. It closes on where real advantage now sits and why more options still need human judgement.
What you'll develop
In this Bitesize, you will develop the ability to:
- Distinguish System 1 from System 2 thinking and identify when a strategic question is being answered by the wrong one.
- Identify anchoring, sunk cost, confirmation bias and groupthink in board-level discussion and describe the guard against each.
- Apply the Cranfield findings and three debiasing habits, naming the anchor, rotating a dissenter and running a pre-mortem, to your own top team.
- Describe the three practical shifts AI brings to strategy work and explain why none of them makes the choice for you.
- Explain what still holds, what gets riskier and what gets easier when AI meets established tools such as Five Forces, Cynefin and robustness analysis.
The Modules.
1 hour 15 minutes of learning.
- 07Rationality, Bias and Judgement in Strategic ChoicesYou can choose the right tool and gather good evidence and still reach a poor choice, because people apply the tool. This module draws on Daniel Kahneman's System 1 and System 2, examines anchoring, sunk cost, confirmation bias and groupthink at board level, and uses Dr Jonathan Huish's Cranfield research, adapting the Kakabadse Top Team Framework, to show how judgement forms in top teams. It ends with three practical debiasing habits.36 min
- 08AI and the New Shape of Strategic Decision-MakingArtificial intelligence has not solved strategy, and it is not a fad. Drawing on Harvard Business Review research, this module argues that strategy's old constraint was bandwidth, sets out three practical shifts AI brings, expanded options, real-time modelling and depoliticised stress-testing, and explains what holds, what gets riskier and what gets easier for established tools. It closes on where real advantage now sits and why more options still need human judgement.38 min
Keep going.
Part of the Strategic Thinking topic, also sold whole as The strategic mind.
Go deeper, and pay only the difference
- You are hereBitesize, 1 hour 15 minutes, £39
- Next stepFocus, Deciding with judgement, 2 hours 30 minutes, £69. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £30.
- Explore, Strategy into action, 4 hours, £129. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £90.
- The whole topicImmerse, The strategic mind, 7 hours 30 minutes, £249. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £210.
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Prices per person. Read the full terms
Also part of: Clear heads on AI
Other Bitesize in the Strategic Thinking topic
- Seeing the bigger pictureStrategic thinking and environmental scanning1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Knowing where you standStrategic analysis: context, position and choice1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Choices under uncertaintyStrategic choice models and decisions under risk1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Shaping the organisationOrganisation design and target operating models1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Making it stickStrategy implementation and delivery1 hour 15 minutes£39
