Seeing round corners
Scenario planning and strategic foresight.
- Level
- Bitesize
- Learning time
- 1 hour 15 minutes
- Where
- VUCA, Uncertainty and Complexity
- Price
- £39
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Read the full terms
Certificate of Completion
Overview and Outcomes.
Overview
You cannot predict the future, but you can rehearse for several of them. This module separates forecasting from scenario planning, traces the method from Pierre Wack's work at Shell before the 1973 oil shock to Peter Schwartz's The Art of the Long View, and sets out a four-step scenario matrix. It covers common pitfalls, revisiting scenarios over time, and applying the approach to the 2026 Devolution Act. Complexity asks leaders to give up the instinct to look decisive. Building on a foundation of presence and communication, this module introduces Ronald Heifetz's adaptive leadership: technical problems versus adaptive challenges, getting on the balcony, and the holding environment with productive disequilibrium. It offers a calm, curious and committed presence triad, and uses Toyota's response to the 2011 earthquake and tsunami to show adaptive leadership under real pressure.
What you'll develop
In this Bitesize, you will develop the ability to:
- Distinguish forecasting from scenario planning and identify a single forecast that is being presented as a scenario exercise.
- Build a two by two scenario matrix, selecting as axes the two forces that are both highly important and genuinely hard to predict.
- Use finished scenarios to stress-test strategy while avoiding common pitfalls, including treating one quadrant as the plan and never revisiting the matrix.
- Distinguish technical problems from adaptive challenges by asking whose behaviour, attitude or priority has to change.
- Apply the balcony and dance floor discipline, using specific questions to read resistance and avoidance after a difficult meeting.
The Modules.
1 hour 15 minutes of learning.
- 07Scenario Planning and Strategic ForesightYou cannot predict the future, but you can rehearse for several of them. This module separates forecasting from scenario planning, traces the method from Pierre Wack's work at Shell before the 1973 oil shock to Peter Schwartz's The Art of the Long View, and sets out a four-step scenario matrix. It covers common pitfalls, revisiting scenarios over time, and applying the approach to the 2026 Devolution Act.38 min
- 08Leading Through Complexity: What's New Beyond Module 4Complexity asks leaders to give up the instinct to look decisive. Building on a foundation of presence and communication, this module introduces Ronald Heifetz's adaptive leadership: technical problems versus adaptive challenges, getting on the balcony, and the holding environment with productive disequilibrium. It offers a calm, curious and committed presence triad, and uses Toyota's response to the 2011 earthquake and tsunami to show adaptive leadership under real pressure.38 min
Keep going.
Part of the VUCA, Uncertainty and Complexity topic, also sold whole as Clear heads in a complex world.
Go deeper, and pay only the difference
- You are hereBitesize, 1 hour 15 minutes, £39
- Next stepFocus, Finding a way through the fog, 2 hours 30 minutes, £69. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £30.
- Explore, Acting with confidence, 4 hours, £129. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £90.
- The whole topicImmerse, Clear heads in a complex world, 8 hours, £249. Already own the Bitesize? You pay £210.
When you step up to a higher level, what you paid in the last 12 months for lower-level courses inside the bigger course comes off its price, in proportion to how much of each is inside it, whichever topic it's from. Courses at the same or a lower level don't give credit against each other. A Focus course or above always costs at least £15. Prices per person. Read the full terms
Also part of: Seeing further, together
Other Bitesize in the VUCA, Uncertainty and Complexity topic
- Naming the world we lead inCynefin framework and complexity for leaders1 hour 30 minutes£39
- Wicked, not just difficultWicked problems, uncertainty and risk1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Probe, sense, respondSensemaking in complex systems with Cynefin1 hour 15 minutes£39
- A considered answer to VUCAVUCA Prime and reframing complex problems1 hour 15 minutes£39
- Living systems, real casesComplex adaptive systems and case studies1 hour 15 minutes£39
